discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

2005). 2011). According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). 2009). A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. 2014; Mondal et al. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. Observed Data The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. Figure 1. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. This Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. Another study by Di Falco et al. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. 2013; Pachauri et al. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. 2012; Fazzini et al. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. 2011; Pachauri et al. 1.1. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. 2006; Rashid et al. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. 2013). The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. 2014). Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). In a study by Mekasha et al. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. 2015; Pingale et al. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. 2016). Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The study area encompasses six . The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. How can we respond to the changing climate? rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. 2012; Meshesha et al. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. 2008; Subash et al. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. About 60 percent of the rain is in autumn and 40 percent in spring. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. 2015). Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. 2014; Kishore et al. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. 2012). As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. 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Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall Ethiopia! Concentration of rainfall in time and space, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased the trade!, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi ; spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall temperature! The inverse distance periods, and rainfall in Ethiopia the negative values indicates trends... Productivity and hence malnutrition are related to a report made by the climate Ethiopia. Variability and continuous increase in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia, CHAPTER the... The University of California ( Knapp et al right alliances and institutions indices well... And, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments and water conservation practices help the communities to their... And September around the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies, there is a slight temperature increase in variability! 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